Revisiting an old essay
In October 2020 I published a short essay in an Icelandic newspaper; my personal reflections on the pandemic at that point in time. I think it has aged well.
In October 2020 I published a short essay in an Icelandic newspaper; my personal reflections on the pandemic at that point in time. I translated it into English also and posted it on my blog.
I reread the essay this morning when browsing my old stuff which I just imported to my Substack blog. A lot has happened since then, and my understanding of the underlying causes of the catastrophe is hopefully deeper now. For example we know now that I was probably wrong on the efficacy of lockdowns. However, I think this short essay has aged well; essentially my point of view has not changed, and even if not many people shared it back then, I believe many more do now.
The Way I Think About Covid-19
I‘m in my early fifties, in the lower range of the age group in danger from Covid-19. If I catch it there‘s an actual possibility I might die from it. The probability isn‘t high, but it is there.
I know the lockdowns, closures and social distancing will protect me if continued as long as it takes. I know that‘s going to be 2-3 years at the very least, (I avoid falling prey to wishful thinking regarding vaccines, their timing, safety or effectiveness). I also know those measures are certain to kill a lot more people than they will save. I know this because I read the news and follow what happens around the world. I know this also because I try to put what I read in the news into context.
For example, I know if the number of people below the poverty line goes up by 50%, as the UN now predicts, because the poor are barred from making a living, and if nine million people died from hunger last year, then we can expect nine million more to die this year and the next because of lockdowns and restrictions. This is simple logic.
I know also, in the Western world, according to the most conservative estimates, we can expect five premature deaths for every thousand people who lose their job. That means for every 100 million people losing their job due to the covid response, five hundred thousand will die at the very least. The young are foregoing proper education, unable to get jobs, losing hope. And many will die from losing hope.
I also know just over a million have died from Covid-19, and given the latest estimate of the infection fatality rate, it is probably going to be 3-4 million in the end, a lot lower number than those who are dying due to the countermeasures.
I know many people demand that all possible measures be taken to protect them. Even people with a life expectancy of perhaps 2-3 years demand that society be locked down just to protect them. Just so they don‘t die from Covid-19. At least not right away. And those don't have to be ignorant people. They may be fully aware of the implications of the restrictions. But they don‘t care. Or they just turn a blind eye.
When I ask myself, knowing what I know, if I should demand that every measure is taken to protect me, I just find it impossible to do so. This is not because I‘m tired of life, far from it. I love life, love my work, look forward to every day. So, of course I take precautions. But I just cannot bring myself to demand, or support, forcing other people, mostly the young, to lose their livelihoods, their hope, their lives, in order to protect me. I simply cannot think only of my own interests when faced with the vast devastation being brought about by those measures.
This is not because I‘m such an altruistic or ethical person. I don‘t see myself as any better than the average person. It isn't because I‘m in any way hurt by the downturn. My business is doing better than ever. And it isn't because I‘m a socialist, for I‘m not.
Seeing things this way is just something that comes so naturally, you don‘t even think about it. When faced with a threat to humanity, you simply respond based on the interests of humanity, the interests of the young, of the future: It is the natural reaction. That's the only explanation I have.
Am I right to think this way? I don‘t know. At least this is the way I think about Covid-19.
Published in October 2020